Enter your room count, historical no-show rate and the number of rooms you're considering overbooking by. The tool estimates your expected walks (guests who arrive but can't be accommodated) at that overbooking level, and compares the extra revenue against the estimated cost of walking a guest.
No-shows are near-universal in accommodation. Selling strictly to capacity guarantees empty, unpaid rooms on nights where a predictable percentage of guests won't arrive. Modest overbooking recovers that lost revenue — the risk is calibrating the level correctly against your actual no-show pattern.
No-show rates vary night to night around your historical average. A level that's "safe" on average will still occasionally produce a walk on an unusually low no-show night. Build in a buffer below the level shown as break-even if walking a guest would be especially costly to your reputation.
A documented walk policy — pre-arranged relocation agreements with nearby properties, a clear compensation policy, and empowered front desk staff — significantly reduces both the cost and reputational damage when a walk does occur.
No-show rates often differ meaningfully by booking channel and rate type (a fully flexible rate has a higher no-show rate than a non-refundable advance purchase rate). Where possible, refine your no-show input using data specific to the booking mix on the night in question rather than a single blended average.
This calculator provides an expected-value estimate based on the figures you enter and does not guarantee outcomes on any individual night. JWBIZ Ltd accepts no liability for overbooking decisions made on the basis of this tool.